MSC: With Iran in crisis, is Europe just a spectator?

At this year's Munich Security Conference, Iran's exiled Crown Prince Reza Pahlavi has urged European leaders to help Iranians topple the Islamist regime. But does Europe have any leverage to deliver on this? ConflictsIranMSC: With Iran in crisis, is Europe just a spectator?Shamil Shams | Niloofar Gholami both in Munich02/15/2026February 15, 2026At this year's Munich Security Conference, Iran's exiled Crown Prince Reza Pahlavi has urged European leaders to help Iranians topple the Islamist regime. But does Europe have any leverage to deliver on this?https://p.dw.com/p/58oEfSupport for Iran's opposition is high in European capitals, but the EU has signalled it prefers diplomacy to using force Image: Markus Lenhardt/dpa/picture allianceAdvertisementOngoing tensions in Iran featured prominently at this year's Munich Security Conference (MSC), coming after the Islamist regime's deadly crackdown on protesters, and with US President Donald Trump continuing to put pressure on Tehran to end its nuclear program. As Iran's hardline Islamist rulers hang on to power after the largest anti-regime protests in decades, Reza Pahlavi, the son of the late Iranian king and a political activist-in-exile, was active at the conference, pleading his case for regime change in Iran. At a panel about Iran's future on Friday, as well as at a press conference on Saturday, Pahlavi called out the Iranian regime's suppression of human rights, especially the brutal crackdown on citizens during the anti-regime protests in January, which rights groups say killed thousands of people. Pahlavi, who many Iranians think can unite the nation against 86-year-old Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei's Shiite government, even presented a roadmap at the MSC for Iran's political future and a "transitional government." After a call to action from Pahlavi, some 250,000 people took part in a demonstration in Munich on Saturday against the Iranian regime and in support of a Pahlavi-led opposition.Pahlavi has not returned to Iran since 1979, but says he is ready to lead a transition away from the Islamic regimeImage: Javad M. parsa/Parspix/abaca/picture alliance "I am here to guarantee a transition to a secular democratic future," he said in a speech during the rally.  "I am committed to be the leader of transition for you so we can one day have the final opportunity to decide the fate of our country through a democratic, transparent process to the ballot box." But the creation of any transitional government depends on the collapse of the ruling Islamic republic. Despite the current unprecedented challenges to its power, the regime is carrying on and has also reportedly intensified its domestic oppression. Still, there were extensive discussions at the MSC about the possibility of regime change in Iran. Will the US strike Iran? The Iranian opposition-in-exile has signaled that it expects the United States to launch strikes that would eventually result in the dismantling of the fundamentalist regime. During the anti-regime protests, US President Donald Trump famously claimed that the help was coming for Iranians. Now, the Trump administration is engaged in negotiations with Tehran over its nuclear program, something which analysts say is unlikely to yield a clear result. "I think a lot of Iranians inside and outside hope that an intervention that will neutralize the regime's instrument of repression will finally give us an opportunity for a final solution," Pahlavi said at an MSC panel, arguing that he was asking for a "humanitarian intervention" to prevent more innocent lives being killed in the process. After Trump stepped back from threats of military intervention over protest deaths, he returned to threats of force if the Iranian regime did not negotiate a new "deal" with the US on its nuclear program. Last week, the US sent a second aircraft carrier strike group to the Arabian Sea, with Trump warning on Friday that it would be a "very bad day" for Iran if the regime does not make a deal. Donald Trump: 'Armada floating beautifully toward Iran'To view this video please enable JavaScript, and consider upgrading to a web browser that supports HTML5 video Pahlavi admitted that the US president needs to give diplomacy a chance before opting for a military solution. He maintains that President Trump knows the Iranian people still believe in the president's promise made during the height of the demonstrations in January. However, Karim Sadjadpour, a policy analyst at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, said regime change is easier said than done. "Everybody in Washington, including President Trump, thinks that if they could push a button and get rid of the Iranian regime, they absolutely would," he told an MSC panel, adding that the Trump administration is possibly concerned about a fallout like what was seen after US military intervention in Iraq and Libya. However, Sadjadpour didn't rule out the possibility of a US strike on Iran. "In 2018, Trump left the [2015] nuclear deal. In 2020, he assassinated Qasem Soleimani [military leader and Khamenei's close aide]. Last summer, he dropped 14 bunker-busters on Iran's nuclear facilities,