ETMarkets.comIndia's clean energy ambition is one of the most audacious infrastructure targets any emerging economy has set for itself. And for the first time in years, the numbers suggest it may actually be achievable — with one significant caveat that investors and policymakers cannot afford to ignore.The target is closer than you thinkWhen the government first announced its goal of 500 gigawatts of non-fossil fuel-based energy capacity by 2030, skepticism was widespread. The scale seemed overwhelming, the timeline aggressive, and the infrastructure gaps too large to bridge.Fast forward to today, and the math has shifted dramatically in India's favor.As of January end, India's total installed power capacity stands at 521 gigawatts, of which 272 gigawatts is already non-fossil fuel based. In the current fiscal year alone, the country has added 52 gigawatts of capacity — with roughly 35 gigawatts coming from solar and another 4.6 gigawatts from wind."If you go by the run rate we are tracking right now, getting from 272 gigawatts to 500 gigawatts by 2030 means we have to clock somewhere close to 46 gigawatts per annum," said Sumit Kishore, India Industrials, Infrastructure and Power Analyst at Axis Capital. "Are we on track to do 46 gigawatts per annum this year? I think very much so."Live EventsYou Might Also Like:States told to finalise pacts to meet green energy purchase obligationsIn other words, India doesn't need to dramatically accelerate. It simply needs to maintain its current pace — and the 500 GW milestone falls into place by 2030.The one number that keeps experts up at nightHere is where the optimism gets complicated.Capacity addition without corresponding demand growth is an exercise in futility. Power grids don't build themselves into profitability — they need consumers, industries, and a growing economy pulling electricity through the system.India's power demand growth has averaged a 5% CAGR over the past two decades. Post-COVID, it surged for three consecutive years, giving the sector tremendous momentum. But the last 18 months have been, in Kishore's own words, "rather disappointing."You Might Also Like:Indo-UK offshore wind task force launched, India crosses 272 GW non-fossil fuel power capacityFiscal year to date, power demand growth in India is running at less than 1%. There was a brief uptick in December and the first three weeks of January, but since January 21st, demand growth has once again slipped below the 1% mark.This sluggishness has real consequences. In states like Rajasthan and Gujarat — which have been at the forefront of solar capacity addition — a combination of weak demand and slow transmission infrastructure ramp-up has already caused curtailment. Power is being generated but cannot be absorbed or evacuated efficiently, effectively wasting the very capacity being built at enormous cost.The silver lining? The low base effect gives analysts confidence that power demand growth should recover to at least 6% over the next 12 months. Axis Capital's economist Neelkanth Mishra has consistently maintained that India will sustain 7% GDP growth — and as Kishore points out, that level of economic expansion simply cannot happen without a meaningful rebound in electricity consumption.The policy piece: What's still missingTwo policy developments will be critical in shaping the sector's trajectory from here.You Might Also Like:India adds 15-25 GW of renewable capacity annually, among fastest globally: MNREThe first is the electricity amendment bill, which was expected during the budget session but has now been pushed to the monsoon session. The bill's core objective is to ensure that power distribution companies — discoms — operate with cost-reflective tariffs. This is significant because discom financial health sits at the very foundation of the entire power value chain. When discoms are financially stressed, payment delays cascade upward through generators, developers, and equipment manufacturers. A healthier discom ecosystem creates a positive chain reaction for the entire sector, including renewables.The second shift is a strategic rebalancing away from pure solar toward battery storage integrated with solar and wind. The heavy solar-only build-out of the past year has exposed the grid's vulnerability when demand is weak and evacuation infrastructure lags. Battery storage addresses intermittency concerns and makes renewable capacity genuinely reliable rather than theoretically available.Budget boost: Incremental but realThe Union Budget delivered some targeted relief for the renewable energy sector through basic customs duty exemptions on inputs like sodium antimonate and lithium-ion cells. Kishore's assessment is measured — the big picture doesn't change, but the benefits are real for manufacturers already positioned in the space.The more significant near-term opportunity lies in solar cell manufacturing. India currently faces a shortage of domestic solar cell capacity, and the gover